After free agency and blockbuster trades, which team is favorite to win Super Bowl 57?

Several teams bulked up for the 2022 season while others look primed to rebuild.

Lance Pugmire
USA TODAY Sports+
  • The return of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers further cement the Buccaneers and Packers as contenders.
  • The Rams, despite adding some pieces, are not favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
  • Teams with uncertain quarterback situations appear to be longshots to win it all.

Since the Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl 56 win, a frenzy of quarterback movement both solidified and shattered huddles. The AFC West remarkably bulked up while other teams were left wayward, longing for answers that may only arrive with the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Indeed, Tom Brady’s un-retirement in Tampa Bay, Aaron Rodgers’ surprising reunion with the Packers and Russell Wilson’s trade to Denver altered the Tipico Sportsbook odds for Super Bowl 57 in Glendale, Ariz. 

Returning quarterback boost

The five favorites each return with last year’s quarterback. While that was a formality for the Buffalo Bills (+650), Kansas City Chiefs (+900) and Rams (+1000), the Buccaneers (+750) and Packers (+1000) put their fans through the ringer. 

Tampa Bay fell to 30/1 during Brady’s short-lived retirement and speculation Rodgers was going to force a trade dropped the Packers to 15/1 despite Green Bay finishing with the NFC’s best regular-season record in 2021. 

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One player may not determine a title, but it is compelling to note the Rams lost defensive lineman Von Miller to the Bills, and now Buffalo supplanted the defending champions as offseason favorites. 

The Rams nonetheless affirmed their title defense by re-signing quarterback Matthew Stafford to a four-year, $160-million extension. He’ll now count former Chicago Bears’ Pro Bowl-receiver Allen Robinson as a target opposite Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp. 

The pack of frontrunners is followed by the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers at 13/1, with the Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys and the Cleveland Browns at 15/1. 

Favorable odds

The Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers and returning AFC playoff qualifier Las Vegas Raiders are the most tightly contested foursome contending for a division title.  

In the AFC West, defending champion Kansas City remains the +140 favorite despite their Wednesday trade of No. 1 receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, followed by the +270 Chargers, who addressed their glaring defensive shortcomings by acquiring Khalil Mack and signing cornerback J.C. Jackson to a five-year, $85-million deal.

Wilson’s arrival in Denver lifts the Broncos to +280 in the division, followed by the +650 Raiders, who obtained arguably the game’s best receiver in Davante Adams. 

The Raiders are a 40/1 Super Bowl choice. 

The Browns’ odds are a mystery. Their acquisition of quarterback Deshaun Watson is effectively a non-starter this season as he confronts certain suspension, with 22 civil lawsuits against him alleging sexual misconduct.

On the move

The Colts’ acquisition of former Super Bowl quarterback Matt Ryan moved them from 30/1 to 20/1 — even with division-rival Tennessee, defending AFC champion Cincinnati, the Baltimore Ravens and the Arizona Cardinals. 

Cincinnati, after rising from 200/1 to the Super Bowl last season, remains a strong play after addressing its offensive line with three free-agent additions, including crown jewel tackle La'el Collins

And the Dolphins, by adding Hill as a target beyond Jaylon Waddle for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, improved from 30/1 to 50/1 to win the Super Bowl and to +450 from +650 to win the AFC East.  

The Falcons’ dealing of Ryan leaves them more flawed and stagnant at 90/1, alongside the woeful Bears, Giants and Jaguars. 

Just ahead of that crew are three teams confronting uncertain quarterback play. The Pittsburgh Steelers, replacing two-time Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger with Mitchell Trubisky, are 60/1, followed by the 80/1 Seahawks and Carolina Panthers. 

Seattle seems prepared to start former Denver quarterback Drew Lock, and Carolina appears to be mulling whether to retain Sam Darnold or trade for either Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield. 

As for Watson’s former team, Houston’s rebuild starts with the 2022 NFL Draft. The Texans received first-round picks over the next three drafts from the Browns, the first coming April 28.

For now, Houston’s league-worst 200/1 Super Bowl odds are only barely exceeded by the number of millions the Browns guaranteed Watson over five years: 230.

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