Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and prediction

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Golden State Warriors (30-10) visit the Cream City Thursday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game with the Milwaukee Bucks (26-17) at the Fiserv Forum. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State has lost three of its past four games including most recently when the Warriors (-2) lost at the Memphis Grizzlies 116-108 Tuesday.

Over the past two weeks, Golden State is 3-3 straight-up (SU), 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U with the 15th-ranked non-garbage time net rating at plus-0.5 and the 25th-ranked spread differential at a minus-3.4 ATS margin, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Milwaukee dropped both of a road back-to-back against the Charlotte Hornets entering Thursday and four of its past five games.

In the last 14 days, the Bucks have the 10th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-3.0 and the 22nd-ranked spread differential at a minus-2.4 ATS margin, per CTG.

Warriors at Bucks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Warriors +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Bucks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +1.5 (-108) | Bucks -1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Warriors at Bucks key injuries

Warriors

  • PF Draymond Green (calf) out
  • C James Wiseman (knee) out

Bucks

  • SG George Hill (health and safety protocols) out
  • PG Jrue Holiday (ankle) doubtful

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Warriors at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 119, Warriors 113

Money line

BET the BUCKS(-125) for 1 unit because Draymond's absence should loom large for the Warriors (+102) versus Milwaukee's All-Star wings Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.

Interestingly enough, Giannis and Stephen Curry's primes haven't crossed paths much over the years. The last time Giannis and Curry played each other was Christmas 2020, and the time before was in Dec. 2018.

However, this could be the worst game for the Warriors to be without Draymond. He'd be tasked with defending Giannis and Middleton. Draymond's absence leaves a glaring hole in Golden State's defense.

Furthermore, the Bucks like to run a lot of isolation through Giannis and Middleton. Milwaukee is successful playing iso-ball (fifth in offensive efficiency out of isolation plays) whereas Golden State plays poor defense versus iso-ball (29th in defensive efficiency).

Also, Milwaukee's backcourt is getting a little healthier. The Bucks are still missing Holiday but guards Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen and Donte DiVincenzo aren't listed on Milwaukee's injury report.

BET 1 unit on the BUCKS (-125).

Against the spread

PASS since Milwaukee's money line is only 13 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Bucks -1.5 (-112) so there's no point fussing with the spread.

That said, if Milwaukee's money line goes north of -140 then I'd lay the points and I like the Bucks up to -4.

Over/Under

"LEAN" to the OVER 223.5 (-115) because both teams play at an above-average pace, have a top-seven effective field goal percentage and a top-five 3-point attempt rate. Simply put, there's a lot of firepower on the floor for both teams.

On top of that, Golden State's defense is worse without Draymond and Milwaukee's defense is weakened sans Holiday.

That said, I only "LEAN" to the OVER 223.5 (-115) because oddsmakers have adjusted to both teams' styles, and these teams actually play more Unders. The Bucks are 18-25 O/U and the Warriors are 13-25-2 O/U.

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