Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

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The Cleveland Guardians (15-15) head to Target Field Friday to start a 3-game series with the Minnesota Twins (18-14) at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Guardians vs. Twinsodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Minnesota is 5-5 in the last 10 games and was just swept in a 3-game set by the Houston Astros, getting outscored 21-3 in the process.

Cleveland is 7-3 in the last 10 and had its 3-game winning streak snapped Tuesday in a 5-0 loss to the Houston Astros.

The Twins beat the Guardians in last year's season series 11-8 and outscored Cleveland 91-75 in those meetings.

Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Aaron Civale vs. RHP Sonny Gray

Civale 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 20 IP over 5 starts.

  • Won 6-5 vs. the Toronto Blue Jays May 5 with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 8 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Twins: 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 1 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Twins on the current roster: 2.73 FIP with a .212/.253/.300 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 25.0 K% and 84.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 64 plate appearances (PA).

Gray is 0-1 with a 3.48 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 7 H, 2 HR, 5 BB and 12 K in 3 starts.

  • No decision in Minnesota's 1-0 win Saturday over the Oakland Athletics with 4-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Guardians: No decision in his lone start, a 3-2 loss in mid-April while pitching for the Cincinnati Reds with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Guardians on the current roster: 2.89 FIP with a .244/.271/.371 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 27.0 K% and 85.7 mph EV in 63 PA.

Guardians at Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:19 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML) : Guardians +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Twins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Guardians +1.5 (-155) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U) : 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Twins 3

Money line

BET the GUARDIANS (+133) because this pitching matchup is even but Cleveland's lineup hits well vs. right-handed pitching and on the road.

The Guardians' hitters are 3rd in wRC+ (123) and 4th in wOBA (.331) on the road (per FanGraphs). Cleveland's lineup is 2nd in both wRC+ (128) and wOBA (.339) against righties. Whereas Minnesota's lineup is 16th in wRC+ (101) and 20th in wOBA (.301).

Also, there's a line freeze in the betting market since more than 85% of the action is on the Twins to win (per Pregame.com) but Minnesota's ML hasn't budged off the opener. This tells us the sportsbooks are welcoming more pro-Twins money and we don't want to play into the House's hand.

TAKE the GUARDIANS (+133).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Guardians +1.5 (-155) is way too expensive considering Cleveland is 6-7 RL as road underdogs.

For the record, the Twins -1.5 (+125) are just 5-7 RL as home favorites but I'd need Cleveland's RL to be south of -135 to take a stab.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+105) because the Under has cashed in 5 of the last 7 Guardians-Twins games. But, Cleveland's ML is my favorite bet in this game hence the lean.

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