Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Kansas City Royals (10-19) head to Coors Field Friday to start a 3-game series with the Colorado Rockies (16-15) at 8:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Royals vs. Rockiesodds with MLB picks and predictions.

K.C. is 3-7 overall in the last 10 games and has lost 4 of its last 5 games, including the 3-game series rubber match at the Texas Rangers 3-1 Thursday.

Colorado wrapped up a 6-game road trip 1-5 overall with two series losses at the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants entering Friday.

Royals at Rockies projected starters

RHP Zack Greinke vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

Greinke is 0-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 2.7 K/9 in 33 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • No-decision in K.C.'s 6-4 win at the Baltimore Orioles Sunday with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • vs. Rockies on the current roster: 2.47 FIP with a .215/.242/.328 expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line, 25.5 K% and 83.4 mph exit velocity in 196 plate appearances.

Freeland 1-3 with a 3.94 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 32 IP over 6 starts.

  • No-decision in Colorado's 4-1 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday with 6-scoreless IP, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K.

Royals at Rockies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML) : Royals +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Rockies -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Royals +1.5 (-165) | Rockies -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under (O/U) : 10.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Royals at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 7, Rockies 5

Money line

LEAN to the ROYALS (+120) because the oddsmakers are begging for Rockies (-145) with a line this low considering K.C. is 1-7 overall vs. left-handed pitching, and the Rockies are tough to beat at home.

But, Colorado's lineup struggles almost as much with right-handed pitching as K.C.'s does vs. lefties, and Freeland pitches worse at his home ballpark since Coors Field is ultra-batter-friendly. Freeland has a 5.57 home ERA (0.82 ERA on the road) and a 6.0 home K/9 (9.8 K/9 in Colorado).

Greinke is 5-1 overall in 14 career games at Coors Field (13 starts). Colorado's bullpen has the second-worst xFIP in the MLB (per FanGraphs) so I give K.C. a 2-phase edge in this matchup: Starting and relief pitching.

Also, there's a line freeze in the betting market since more than 85% of the action (according to Pregame.com) is on the Rockies, but their current price hasn't budged off the opener. This tells us that the sportsbooks are looking for more pro-Colorado money, and we don't want to play into the House's hand.

BET the ROYALS (+120).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Royals +1.5 (-155) is too expensive considering K.C. is just 7-7 RL as road underdogs and has a bottom-10 lineup and bullpen.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the OVER 10.5 (-107) because the Rockies are 5-0 O/U in Freeland's last 5 starts with the total set between 9-10.5, K.C. is 7-6-1 O/U as road underdogs and Colorado is 6-4 O/U as home favorites.

However, I'm sure the Over will be a popular bet in the Royals-Rockies since Coors Field is a launching pad, and neither pitching staff is any good. I hate following a crowd in sports betting - but I'll LEAN OVER 10.5 (-107).

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