Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

USA Today Sportsbookwire

The Milwaukee Brewers (20-12) head to loanDepot park Friday to begin a 3-game set with the Miami Marlins (14-17) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Brewers vs. Marlinsodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee has lost back-to-back series and 4 of its last 5 games, including most recently at the Cincinnati Reds 14-11 Wednesday.

Miami is 2-8 in its last 10 games and lost 3 consecutive series, but the Marlins snapped a 3-game losing skid Wednesday with an 11-3 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks.

These teams split last year's season series 3-3 with Miami outscoring Milwaukee 27-16 in those meetings.

Brewers at Marlins projected starters

RHP Corbin Burnes vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Burnes is 1-2 with a 1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • Lost at the Atlanta Braves 3-2 Saturday with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: Lost 8-0 in late April with 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 1.10 FIP with a .220/.265/.327 expected batting average (xBA), expected wOBA (xwOBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 31.9 K% and 85.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 47 plate appearances (PA).

Lopez 4-1 with a 1.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 36 IP across 6 starts.

  • Beat the San Diego Padres 8-0 on the road Saturday with 8 scoreless IP, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Brewers: 0.76 FIP with a .242/.305/.363 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 40.0 K% and 82.7 mph EV in 20 PA.

Brewers at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:06 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML) : Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Brewers -1.5 (+122) | Marlins +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under (O/U) : 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Brewers at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Brewers 2

Money line

BET the MARLINS (+125) for a three-fourths unit because their lineup is pretty solid and performs much better in Miami, as does Lopez.

The Marlins are 4th in wRC+ (125) and 6th in wOBA (.337) at home, per FanGraphs. Also, Lopez has a sub-3.00 career home ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 0.71 HR allowed per 9 IP.

Miami is 26-24 overall as home underdogs since the beginning of last season and are tied with the worst luck in the MLB at -3, meaning the Marlins should have 3 more wins based on their run differential.

TAKE the MARLINS (+125) at home.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN to the MARLINS +1.5 (-150) because it should cash since Miami is 30-20 RL as home underdogs since the start of last season and the Brewers -1.5 (-120) is 3-10 RL as road favorites.

But, I prefer Miami's ML because the Marlins are 5-1 overall when Lopez gets the start and their lineup comes alive in Miami.

LEAN to the MARLINS +1.5 (-150).

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (-110) because there are 2 studs on the mound, including the 2021 NL Cy Young winner (Burnes). Also, Miami's home ballpark is typically pitcher-friendly.

However, loanDepot park is surprisingly 5th in runs by park factor in 2022, the Brewers are 6-5-2 O/U as road favorites and the Marlins are 2-1 O/U as home underdogs.

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