Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

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The Cleveland Guardians (35-28) continue their 3-game series with the Minnesota Twins (38-31) Wednesday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Guardians vs. Twinsodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cleveland won the series opener 6-5 Tuesday thanks to an RBI single in the top of the 11th inning by Guardians 2B Andres Gimenez. The season series is tied 2-2, but Minnesota has a plus-4 run differential in those meetings.

Guardians at Twins projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Sonny Gray

McKenzie is 4-5 with a 2.96 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 70 IP over 11 starts and 1 bullpen outing.

  • Last start: Won 4-2 Thursday at the Colorado Rockies with 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Twins: One start, a 3-1 loss in Minnesota May 15 with 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.

Gray is 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 38 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Minnesota's 5-0 win at the Seattle Mariners Wednesday with 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Guardians: One start, a no-decision in Minnesota's 12-8 home win May 13 with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 8 K.

Guardians at Twins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:11 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML) : Guardians +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Twins -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Guardians +1.5 (-155) | Twins -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U) : 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Guardians at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 5, Guardians 3

Money line

RISK 1 unit the TWINS (-165) instead of betting 1 unit because of the price.

The Twins are the play because they are more profitable in these spots, their lineup hits right-handed pitching better than the Guardians, Gray has more impressive advanced pitching numbers vs. Wednesday's opponent than McKenzie and the line is headed in Minnesota's direction.

The Twins are 12-4 overall as home favorites vs. right-handed starters with a plus-19.8% return on investment (ROI) and are outscoring opponents by 2 runs per game. The Guardians are 4-9 as road underdogs vs. righty starters with a minus-23.1% ROI and are being outscored by 1.5 runs per game.

Also, Minnesota's lineup outperforms Cleveland's vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (114-106), wOBA (.325-.315), ISO (.166-.151) and hard-hit rate (34.5-26.3%), according to FanGraphs.

Furthermore, Gray has a .237/.307/.411 expected batting (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with a 29.0 K%, 88.6 mph exit velocity (EV) and 7.2° launch angle (LA) in 69 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Guardians hitters, per Statcast.

McKenzie has a .265/.372/.548 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line with a 27.0 K%, 90.3 mph EV and 16.3° LA in 63 PA vs. current Twins hitters.

Finally, the public is mostly split on who'll win this game but the sharper bettors are staking Minnesota, which has been steamed from a -145 ML opener up to the current number, according to Pregame.com.

If your standard unit is $100 then "FLAT-BET" that on the TWINS (-165) to earn a $60.61 profit instead of betting $165 to win $100.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN to the TWINS -1.5 (+125) based on the previous analysis and Minnesota is more profitable on the RL in these situations than the Guardians +1.5 (-155). However, it's only a "lean" to Minnesota's RL because we are paying a pretty penny on the ML.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-110) only because Minnesota's ML is my preferred play. But, Guardians-Twins are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 meetings and have a combined 7-12 O/U record when these starters get the nod.

Also, there's more money on the UNDER 8.5 (-110) whereas more bets have been placed on the Over 8.5 (-110), per Pregame.com. Typically, you want to follow the money when it's counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.

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