Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Skip Snow
Sportsbook Wire

The Washington Nationals (36-71) and Philadelphia Phillies (57-48) meet Friday at 7:05 p.m. ET to continue a 4-game NL East series at Citizens Bank Park. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Nationals vs. Philliesodds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 7-2. The Phillies took Friday's series opener 5-4 in a rain-shortened 5-inning affair.

The Nationals batted just .163 with runners in scoring position over their previous 7 games before they were 4-of-10 in such situations Thursday as they collected 11 hits in 5 frames. However, Philadelphia hit a couple of key home runs and had a 4-run 3rd inning in earning its third 1-run victory over Washington.

The Phillies are 7-1 in their last 8 games. Three of those 7 wins have been by 1-run margins. That's a bit of a flip of the script for Philadelphia which is just 13-16 in 1-run games this season.

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Nationals at Phillies projected starters

RHP Josiah Gray vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Gray (7-7, 4.59 ERA) has posted a 1.28 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 102 IP in 19 starts.

  • Owns a 3.86 ERA over 4 career starts against the Phillies.
  • Has notched a 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his last 5 starts.
  • Has fared much better on the road with a 2.45 road ERA this season (3.09 career road ERA).

Gibson (6-4, 4.60 ERA) has clocked a 1.23 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 107 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

  • Last pitched on July 27 as he missed his scheduled start Tuesday while on the bereavement list.
  • Has allowed a .743 OPS overall in his career and a slightly worse .780 OPS when starting on 6-plus days of rest.
  • Owns an 8.79 ERA over his last 3 home starts.

Nationals at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:08 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Phillies -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-125) | Phillies -1.5 (+102)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Nationals at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 4, Phillies 3

Money line

Gray has pitched against tough competition of late and has been hurt by some inopportune home runs. His extreme fly-ball stuff makes for plenty of risk on a warm, humid, breeze-blowing-out night in Philadelphia.

However, that risk is adequately rewarded for a hurler who has fared well against these Phillies, a club swung around to its lesser platoon splits against righties.

TAKE WASHINGTON (+160).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS: not enough value in the outlay for the Washington side.

Over/Under

There is some baked-in Under edge in the batting-versus-expected numbers, and Gray adds to that. Two rested bullpens also come along for the ride.

BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (+100) on a partial-unit play.

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